How Should Taiwan Play the “Trump” Card?

Donald Trump took office as the Forty-Seventh President of the United States on January 20, 2025. Before his inauguration, the world, learning from the unpredictability and transactional proclivity of Trump's foreign policy during his first term, had expected an upside-down in US foreign policy and international relations after he assumed the presidency. Merely a few months into his second term, President Trump's whirlwind of actions, from announcing reciprocal tariffs on imports from around the world to proposing to take control of the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Gaza, delivered that expectation.

President Trump's policy-making style, unbounded by institutions and values, leaves the US Taiwan policy entirely to his whim on managing America's geopolitical competition with China. Speculating about the future directions of the US-China geopolitical relations, Evan Medeiros, the Obama White House's National Security Council Director for Asian Affairs, argued that much would depend on whether Trump the competitor or Trump the dealmaker will step forward.

Facing the unpredictable Trump 2.0, a competitor or dealmaker, Taiwan's best strategy is to focus on things it can control. Taiwan's bottom-line strategy is to take a page from Trump's The Art of the Deal: Enhancing the island's position in any exchanges by controlling things that others want, need, or can't do without. However, the fundamental source of leverage comes from continuing to invest and build up the island's capabilities; as the saying goes, God helps those who help themselves. Keeping the principle in mind, Taiwan will be more likely to have a "trump card" to play, no matter whether it is Trump the competitor or the dealmaker that steps forward.

• Dalton Lin

• Sam Nunn School of International Affairs