How Should Taiwan Play the "Trump" Card? (In Chinese)

President Trump faces a world moving from a unipolar US hegemony to multipolarity. From new international organizations such as BRICS that can rule out the United States to new interstate wars such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine that can break out and drag on despite US warnings and counteractions, the time that the United States can single-handedly dictate the world has gone. The issue faced by President Trump is maintaining US influence, interests, and position as the first among equals in the multipolarizing world.

Fortunately, in contrast to America's vibrant economy and powerful military capabilities witnessed in the ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East, America's geopolitical rivals, the so-called "Axis of Upheaval" countries, are facing difficulties--China's economic slowdown, Russia's war quagmire, North Korea's chronicle deprivation, and Iran's Potemkin strength exposed by Israel's military operations. President Trump now seems to have the opportunity to deal with these geopolitical challenges from the position of strength. He will also benefit from the "madman" image he acquired during his first term. Because he is perceived as unpredictable and crazy, no one can discard his threats lightly, making America's foes more likely to be deterred. The problem is that he also threatens allies and friends, making people uncertain whether he is shrewd or reckless.

President Trump's recent threats to take control of Greenland, an autonomous territory of America's NATO ally Denmark, and the Panama Canal exacerbate the confusion. However, behind the threats are solid geopolitical concerns linked to America's national security. With the help of seasoned foreign policy aides, including his National Security Advisor pick Mike Waltz and the Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, the hyperbole of using force will not happen. More likely, his threats are ways to enter the negotiation with strength and keep pushing the counterparts to move as close to what he wants as possible. The shrewdness can lead to America's geopolitical advantage. That said, it remains to be seen whether President Trump will eventually return to reckless unilateralism and coercion, especially when these "adults" leave his administration, including against America's allies and friends, making them have nothing to show in return for their alliances with the United States and leading to the collapse of America's bandwagon. Trump the Shrewd will know that coercion is only a means to acquire strength in negotiation and that loyal allies are fundamental to US strength in competition against geopolitical foes. The wisdom is especially essential in a world that America no longer dominates.

• Dalton Lin

• Sam Nunn School of International Affairs